CNN
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The 2024 presidential election isn’t a race for pupil council president.
And it’s not simply because one of many candidates is 60 years outdated (Kamala Harris) and the opposite is about two years shy of 80 (Donald Trump). It’s as a result of, as Democrats Hillary Clinton and Al Gore know, the nationwide standard vote doesn’t decide the winner.
The one factor that issues is attending to 270 electoral votes via the Electoral School. This yr, if you understand the winner(s) in these 5 states — Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and maybe a sixth, Arizona — you’ll know which candidate has gotten there.
Why is it these 5 – 6 states? All of them by far have seen the closest polling, and every is price not less than 10 electoral votes.
Let’s begin with some fundamentals: 226 electoral votes will be discovered within the states — together with Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District and Washington, DC — the place Harris has had a transparent lead over Trump. In the meantime, 219 electoral votes appear to be leaning within the former president’s route.
We take these locations off the board as a result of one of many candidates is forward by 5 factors or extra in virtually all of them.
Now, there’s all the time the possibility of one other state surprising us. If Ann Selzer’s Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa ballot launched this previous weekend is true, Iowa might be that state. The survey confirmed Harris at 47% to Trump’s 44% — a discovering throughout the margin of error in a state the previous president received by excessive single digits in each 2016 and 2020.
After all, if that ballot is wherever near being proper, chances are high Harris will do effectively sufficient within the battleground states to simply seize not less than 270 electoral votes.
Taking a look at these battleground states, Harris has the simpler path than Trump to attending to 270 electoral votes. She might win by corralling Michigan (15 electoral votes), Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes) and Wisconsin (10 electoral votes). Victories in these three “blue wall” states would get her to precisely 270.
The polling in these three states is shut. A mean of current polling exhibits Harris with the smallest of benefits in Michigan and Wisconsin (a few level), and the 2 candidates tied in Pennsylvania. (Different averages might need her barely additional forward and even barely behind in these states.)
It isn’t a shock that Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are Harris’ finest states of the remaining necessary ones. These are the three states that Clinton misplaced by the smallest margin in 2016, and all three helped put Joe Biden excessive in 2020. Harris additionally appears to be holding up higher amongst White voters than voters of colour relative to Biden’s 2020 efficiency. These states have the very best proportion of White voters of the present battleground states.
However polls aren’t good. Trump might simply win a number of of those three states. Let’s say he wins certainly one of them. Harris might nonetheless get to 270 electoral votes by including one other state to her column.
No state has had extra consecutive presidential elections determined by lower than 5 factors than North Carolina at 4 straight cycles. And the Tar Heel State is prone to be fairly aggressive once more. Trump appears to have a bonus of a few level in North Carolina proper now, in accordance with a median of current polls.
Importantly, the state has 16 electoral votes. Because of this Harris might lose both Michigan or Wisconsin, and simply substitute in North Carolina.
The identical holds true for Georgia. The Peach State has 16 electoral votes. So why does North Carolina rank forward of Georgia for me by way of significance?
In spite of everything, Biden received Georgia in 2020, whereas he misplaced North Carolina to Trump by a degree. The straightforward clarification is that the polling has been nearer in North Carolina this time round. Trump’s been forward by 1 to 2 factors, per the common of Georgia polling over the previous few weeks.
And provided that the Democratic base in every of those Southern states is extremely reliant on Black and college-educated voters, chances are high excessive that any polling error in a single state can be seen within the different, too. In different phrases, Harris would seemingly have a greater probability at successful North Carolina than she would Georgia.
That stated, we don’t know for positive that Georgia will vote to the precise of North Carolina. And if Harris loses Wisconsin, together with both Michigan or Pennsylvania, she would wish each Southern states to get to 270 electoral votes.
You’ll notice that I haven’t spoken about both Arizona (the sixth state I teased earlier) or Nevada (a battleground state the place the present polling may be very tight).
Within the case of Arizona, the reason being a mix of two elements: the closeness of the polls and the variety of electoral votes. Trump’s strongest state within the battleground polling has been Arizona. He’s up by about 2 factors on common over Harris. That’s inside any margin of error, nevertheless it nonetheless makes the state considerably much less appetizing for the vice chairman.
Moreover, Arizona has 11 electoral votes. Michigan and Pennsylvania each have extra. If Harris misplaced both one, substituting Arizona wouldn’t be sufficient to get her to 270 electoral votes. You’d want one other state plus Arizona.
Arizona does not less than have extra electoral votes than Wisconsin. You can not say that about Nevada, nevertheless, which has simply six electoral votes.
Whereas I can draw up eventualities beneath which Nevada would decide the winner, they’d be few and much between. So though polling within the Silver State is shut (inside a degree), the electoral math strains up in such a means that solely in a uncommon situation would Nevada really make the distinction.
After all, understanding how loopy our politics have been, we are able to’t dismiss the electoral map. However the backside line is that this election is probably going to return down to 5 states … or perhaps six.
