CNN
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When Kamala Harris held her first marketing campaign rally because the presumptive Democratic nominee final week, probably the most weak senators within the nation was readily available to welcome her.

Tammy Baldwin, the two-term Wisconsin Democrat, didn’t attend President Joe Biden’s post-debate rally within the state earlier this month. However her look with Harris signaled the brand new pleasure Democrats are feeling from their base.

That enthusiasm can be key to serving to the occasion defend one of many so-called blue wall states, the place Biden received by half a degree in 2020 and the place Baldwin must win if Democrats are to have any shot at retaining their slender Senate majority.

However a reshaped presidential contest received’t change the calculus for Democrats in probably the most aggressive Senate races – lots of them in states former President Donald Trump received or narrowly misplaced in 2020. Baldwin isn’t almost as endangered as her Democratic colleagues in Montana and Ohio, states Trump twice received huge. However she is going to doubtless have to depend on some proportion of ticket-splitters to win, which even she has acknowledged could also be more durable than throughout her 2018 reelection race given the polarization of immediately’s politics.

“We’re the battleground state,” Baldwin advised the pleasant crowd in Milwaukee on Tuesday earlier than Harris took the stage.

Baldwin had spent the 2 days earlier than Biden ended his reelection bid assembly with older Democrats in southwest Wisconsin, recording the “Pod Save America” podcast in Madison and shaking arms with voters at a fish pageant in a conservative suburban county north of Milwaukee – a mirrored image of her have to each harness the bottom and attain past it.

Like many Democratic incumbents this yr, Baldwin was already polling higher than Biden. Even when Harris improves the general panorama for Democrats on the high of the ticket – which it’s too early to say – Baldwin’s problem can be to maintain up her benefit as her Republican opponent, Eric Hovde, turns into higher recognized. The senator and her allies have painted Hovde as a rich financial institution CEO and steadily knock him for his ties to California.

“We’ve got a Inexperienced County. We’ve got a Brown County. We should not have an Orange County, Wisconsin,” she says on the stump, citing Hovde beforehand being named probably the most influential individuals within the Southern California county. However Hovde, who Republicans imagine is a extra formidable challenger than Baldwin’s 2018 opponent, has thousands and thousands of his personal cash to spend.

Brandon Scholz, a former government director of the state Republican Occasion, doesn’t see Baldwin’s numbers altering a lot simply because Harris is working.

“I feel Republicans have underestimated Baldwin through the years,” he mentioned Friday when requested about her potential to overperform the highest of the ticket. “She has a really liberal voting report in Washington, no query about it. However she additionally spends time in Wisconsin and has some Wisconsin-centric laws that she has pushed.”

However he cautioned that it’s nonetheless early within the marketing campaign; voters aren’t tuned in but; and Baldwin has been working for much longer than Hovde, who entered the race in February.

“It’s gonna take him time to shut that hole,” he mentioned. “And he’s bought 100 days to do it.”

Spectators ultimately weekend’s Port Fish Days parade in Port Washington alongside Lake Michigan sprawled over the curb to look at the Milwaukee Dancing Grannies; a trampoline act; and a stream of shiny Corvettes and firetrucks. Whether or not they needed to be or not, voters who mentioned “Tammy sucks” have been sandwiched subsequent to those that needed to see her run for president.

“Is Hovde that man who’s from California?” requested 59-year-old Cheryl, who didn’t wish to give her full title.

“He’s from Wisconsin,” yelled one other girl sitting just a few chairs away.

Baldwin’s technique has relied on defining Hovde earlier than he defines himself. Moreover going after his California connections (he’s the CEO of Sunwest Financial institution and owns a house in Laguna Seaside), her marketing campaign can be attacking him on the air for a string of controversial feedback – together with saying that almost all nursing dwelling sufferers aren’t in a situation to vote.

Hovde, who’s additionally CEO of a distinguished Madison-based improvement firm bearing his title, has to this point poured $13 million of his cash into his Senate marketing campaign – his second after an unsuccessful bid in 2012. He’s responded to Baldwin’s adverts together with his personal spots laying out his Wisconsin roots.

However like many GOP challengers this yr making an attempt to catch as much as Trump’s ballot numbers, Hovde can be making an attempt to nationalize the race. After working an advert pressuring Baldwin to say the place she stood on Biden after his disastrous debate efficiency (she by no means publicly known as for the president to bow out of the race), he has pivoted to making an attempt to tie her to the administration, particularly Harris, on inflation and the border. “We deserve higher than leaders who bob alongside whereas America crumbles,” the narrator in one Hovde advert says over footage of the vp laughing, with a Baldwin bobblehead that includes all through the spot.

It stays to be seen how that can play out. The Hovde marketing campaign didn’t make him obtainable to reporters within the state final weekend and didn’t reply to CNN’s subsequent inquiries in regards to the race.

On the Republican Nationwide Conference in Milwaukee earlier this month, the chair of the Senate GOP marketing campaign arm mentioned Hovde had closed the hole in his race greater than any of their different Senate recruits, particularly touting his potential to get on TV early due to self-funding. Nonetheless, a Fox Information ballot launched Friday confirmed Baldwin main Hovde 54% to 43% amongst registered Wisconsin voters, whereas there was no clear chief within the presidential race.

A minimum of a number of attendees on the parade in Port Washington – which falls in one of many three GOP-leaning “WOW” counties (Waukesha, Ozaukee, Washington) within the Milwaukee space – mentioned they have been voting for Trump as a result of they have been Republicans, however hadn’t made up their minds in regards to the Senate race but.

That type of indecision creates an crucial for Hovde to consolidate the GOP base – and a possibility for Baldwin to peel off a few of these voters.

Working her manner down the refreshment line on the Port Fish Days pageant after the parade, Baldwin didn’t skip a beat when she bought to Patrick Barnett, who was carrying a Trump polo shirt. He bought a handshake and pleasant dialog.

“I like her, and he or she has completed plenty of good issues,” mentioned Barnett, 65, of close by Mequon. “However her occasion has completed an excessive amount of to outweigh that.”

Reached by telephone on Friday, Barnett mentioned that the method by which Harris ascended to the highest of the ticket solely confirmed his distaste for the Democratic Occasion.

He recalled voting for Baldwin not less than as soon as earlier than and praised her for serving to move bipartisan laws. “And actually not voting for her after that wasn’t actually on her – it was extra, like I say, to do with the occasion,” he added.

However this yr, he’s taken situation with the tone of a few of Baldwin’s adverts going after Hovde’s previous statements – together with one that includes a farmer saying, “Eric Hovde, what the hell is fallacious with this man?”

Some 170 miles west of Port Washington, near the Iowa border, the chatter on the Grant County Democratic picnic gave strategy to chants of “Tammy, Tammy, Tammy” as quickly because the senator walked into the room on July 19, two days earlier than Biden dropped out of the race.

Baldwin’s supporters in Platteville – a metropolis that backed Biden however lies in a county that pivoted from Barack Obama to Trump – have been fired up, even when there was hesitation about whether or not Biden may win Wisconsin.

“I give him a 50-50 shot,” mentioned 72-year-old Tom Caywood, who didn’t need Biden to step apart. (“Don’t the voters have some say on this?” he requested.) However reached by telephone per week later, Caywood mentioned Biden did the appropriate factor — even when he doesn’t just like the strain he thinks the occasion placed on him.

And he likes Harris. “She’s very accustomed to the function, robust girl, and he or she’s bought a authorized background,” he mentioned of the previous California legal professional basic. He likes what she may imply for Baldwin and different down-ballot Democrats too: “Likelihood is, in the event that they’re going to vote for her for president, they’ll in all probability simply vote straight ticket.”

Tracey Roberts mentioned she needed Biden to make his personal choice, however that the presidential race was too shut for consolation. “I’m very happy,” the 66-year-old Platteville resident mentioned by telephone per week later, after Biden’s exit from the race. “I feel it’ll actually change the passion degree – among the many individuals I do know, it’s a lot increased.”

Native events are feeling it, too.

“The quantity of enthusiasm I’ve seen is unprecedented,” mentioned William Garcia, the Democratic Occasion chair for Wisconsin’s third Congressional District, which incorporates Grant County and is one among simply two US Home seats seen as aggressive within the state. “I’ve had dozens of individuals contacting us to volunteer. I’ve had individuals donating cash to the native occasion with out us even asking.”

Garcia, who additionally chairs the La Crosse County Democratic Occasion, mentioned he sees that pleasure flowing each methods on the Democratic poll.

“Baldwin doesn’t want presidential coattails to win right here in Wisconsin,” he mentioned Friday.

“However I feel that lots of people who have been going to assist Baldwin – these type of undecided swing voters who have been undoubtedly going to assist Baldwin however weren’t but determined in regards to the high of the ticket – I feel they’re much more more likely to go for Harris now.”