CNN
—
Joe Biden simply made a false assertion about his present polling place. He informed BET that “presidents who’ve gained at this stage of the sport, the final seven or eight presidents, 5 of them had been shedding right now by vital margins.”
A take a look at historical past, nonetheless, reveals no such factor. As a substitute, it reveals that Biden is in a weak place for an incumbent president, and incumbents who’re trailing at this level within the marketing campaign hardly ever come again to win.
It’s not completely clear whether or not Biden was referring to sitting presidents (i.e., counting solely races with incumbents) or future presidents (i.e., counting all presidential races). Both approach, his assertion doesn’t maintain water.
Let’s discuss incumbents first. I went again and checked out all obtainable polling knowledge from the Roper Heart for Public Opinion Analysis (from 1940 to 2020) and Gallup (for 1936). This contains 15 presidential races that featured incumbents.
Simply two incumbents (George W. Bush in 2004 and Harry Truman in 1948) had been trailing by any margin at this level within the marketing campaign and got here again to win. That’s a far cry from 5 of the final seven or eight presidents, as Biden put it to BET.
Of the previous eight incumbents who ran for reelection, 5 confronted a deficit within the common of polls at this level. 4 of them misplaced — Trump in 2020, George H.W. Bush in 1992, Jimmy Carter in 1980 and Gerald Ford in 1976. Solely George W. Bush was down at this stage in 2004 and went on to win.
Incumbents akin to Barack Obama in 2012, Invoice Clinton in 1996 and Ronald Reagan in 1984 had been all forward by now. All could be reelected.
Certainly, the observe document for incumbents who had been main at this level of their campaigns is robust — and since 1936, all of them emerged victorious.
Biden, although, could not simply have been referring to incumbents. He could have been together with future presidents too. Open races, during which the candidates are sometimes much less well-known, are usually extra unpredictable.
On this case, although, Biden’s assertion continues to be mistaken. The candidate main at this level within the marketing campaign has gained six of the previous eight presidential elections. Trump in 2016 and George W. Bush in 2004 had been the exceptions.
(Word: I’m speaking about profitable the election, not the favored vote. Although if we’re inspecting the favored vote, it might nonetheless stay six out of eight as a result of whereas the 2016 polls at this level would have predicted the proper common vote winner, the 2000 polls wouldn’t.)
For the needs of understanding the depth of Biden’s drawback, we are able to return even additional. Though Biden didn’t say this himself, I used to be to see, going again to 1936, how typically a candidate trailed by a major margin simply earlier than the get together conventions however went on to win.
You could find others who had been doing worse than Biden is true now and gained. George H.W. Bush was shedding in 1988 to Michael Dukakis. Richard Nixon was down to Hubert Humphrey in 1968.
Add these to Trump in 2016 and Truman in 1948, and also you get 4 examples of candidates who had been trailing at this level by a minimum of as a lot as Biden is presently and went on to win. Nonetheless, that’s not the 5 Biden mentioned, and we’ve widened the pattern measurement to greater than double what he talked about in his BET interview.
You may get to 5 when you embody George W. Bush, whose deficit in 2004 was not as unhealthy as Biden’s. Biden is behind by about 3 factors or worse within the swing states, whereas Bush was down by 1 to 2 factors nationally. A 5 out of 21 (23%) likelihood of victory isn’t the place an incumbent president needs to be proper now.
Lastly, I’ll word that if we focus solely on races during which presidents had been in search of reelection, we are able to see what Biden’s actual drawback is. He’s an incumbent with an approval ranking south of 40% and a disapproval ranking north of fifty%.
There have been different incumbents operating for reelection with equally unhealthy numbers — Carter in 1980 and George H.W. Bush in 1992. Each misplaced, and never by small margins.
Mockingly, the very best hope for Biden is the instance of Trump, who was down at this level in 2020 by way over Biden is now. Trump had an approval ranking proper at 40% (so not considerably higher than Biden’s present numbers) and a disapproval ranking properly above 50%.
Trump ended up barely shedding within the pivotal battleground states.
Now this Trump instance doesn’t make Biden’s comment concerning the polls to BET someway true. Regardless of the way you take a look at it, his assertion is inaccurate.
Maybe extra worrisome is it’s not the primary time Biden has tried to diagnose his polling in public in a approach that’s at finest deceptive. He did so throughout his information convention final week, when he mentioned, “There are a minimum of 5 presidents operating or incumbent presidents who had decrease numbers than I’ve now.”
Whereas he appeared to offer himself a little bit extra wiggle room than he did in his BET interview, the thought he’s making an attempt to push — that loads of individuals in his place have come again to win — is a continuing theme.
However it offers his supporters false hope. Whereas I wouldn’t take into account his prospects dire — a Biden victory is attainable — the president is in fairly a nasty place polling-wise.
